On December 28th, 2018, Canadian-American Paul Whelan was detained in Moscow. According to the Russian side, Whelan was detained during an “espionage operation,” in connection with which the FSB opened a criminal case against the American, charging him with “Espionage”, which carries a sentence of up to 20 years in prison. On January 3rd, it became known that the Moscow City Court has ordered Whelan held under arrest for two months as a preventive measure.
According to Rosbalt, which refers to its sources in the special services, Whelan was caught red-handed receiving a flash drive with a classified list of employees of one of the secret agencies. However, Whelan maintains his innocence, and his twin brother, David, told the press that Paul was in Moscow for a wedding of a fellow Marine, which took place at an upscale hotel in central Moscow on Dec. 28, the day he was detained.
“It is inconceivable to me that he would have done anything to break the law in Russia,” David Whelan told The Washington Post. As the American media discovered, Whelan joined the Marine Reserves in 1994. He was deployed in Iraq for several months in 2004 and 2006, but according to the press, in 2008 he was convicted at a special court-martial on several charges related to larceny and was given a bad-conduct discharge in December 2008 with the rank of Private.
At the time of his detention, Whelan worked as the corporate security director for BorgWarner, an automotive parts supplier, and he frequently visited Russia in the past ten years. According to The Times, he also had British citizenship.
Based on Whelan’s biography and other known facts, veterans of both American and Soviet intelligence agencies are certain that the American detained in Moscow has nothing to do with the special services, and his arrest can be viewed as a kind of “hostage-taking”, that is, a provocation for the future exchange for Russian “foreign agent” Maria Butina arrested in July.
“It is inconceivable to me that Mr. Whelan was involved in intelligence activity in Moscow. The Russian security service is amongst the best in the world and devotes ridiculous resources to monitoring and uncovering US activities. As such, the US intelligence community only engages in the highest impact, most sensitive operations. We do not allow people without diplomatic immunity to operate in Moscow for exactly this reason. We do not engage in low level collection or simply have visitors collect information. The Russians can run double agents or other games and arrest Americans. Without diplomatic immunity these people can be arrested and become “trade bait” for people like Aldrich Ames, Robert Hanssen or Maria Butina. US intelligence would not let itself be put in that situation,” said John Sipher, a former senior CIA official with nearly 30 years of experience in intelligence.
The veteran of American intelligence notes that Vladimir Putin was a career KGB officer and the Director of the FSB – the internal counterintelligence service, and he has been President for almost 20 years after that.
“He knows the long history of the US-Russian intelligence battle. He has seen the arrests, defections and the efforts his side takes to uncover US intelligence activities. He knows very well how the US operates and that the US does not use people like Mr. Whelan. Further, the CIA would never hire someone who was discharged from the military for criminal behavior. I cannot imagine that Mr. Whelan was involved in any coordinated effort to collect intelligence,” assures John Sipher.
According to Sipher, the situation is complicated by the fact that the Russian espionage law essentially allows the Russians to arrest anyone they want.
“In 2012 they changed the law to be so vague as to allow the Kremlin to be able to charge most anyone they want with espionage. It has been damaging to NGOs. Groups like USAID, Amnesty International and others have had to consider leaving Russia altogether because the people they work with can be charged with espionage for being a “foreign agent” engaged in “political activities” detrimental to the Russian state. It is so vague and lax that the state can clamp down at any time it wishes,” he explained.
John Sipher notes that similar cases have already occurred in the history of Russian-American relations.
“Take a look at the case of Edmond Pope. The more relevant case, however, is the case of Nicholas Daniloff. He was a US News reporter that was arrested in USSR on spying charges three days after the FBI arrested a KGB officer at the UN,” he recalls.
At the same time, Sipher considers the arrest of an American in Moscow to be direct retribution for the arrest of Maria Butina.“If so, it suggests that the Kremlin takes the Butina arrest seriously and fears that she has damaging information to tell the FBI. The Kremlin is likely looking to put pressure on the Trump Administration to do a “spy swap” or begin negotiations.”
The same opinion is shared by another CIA veteran, Michael Sellers.
“The fact that Whelan was dishonorably discharged from the military means that NO WAY is he a CIA operative. Sorry, that would have disqualified him. Secondly, the Ambassador to Moscow visited him — that’s unheard of. Ambassadors don’t do prison visits. This means it’s a big deal. At the end of the day, it is clear that this is nothing more or less than hostage-taking by Putin. He will eventually come out with trumped up charges – something along the lines that Whelan attempted to receive classified materials from a Russian citizen, which is something they could plant on any American,” he assumes.
The former KGB lieutenant colonel Akif Gasanov, who served in Soviet intelligence for about 15 years, concurs with the CIA veterans’ assessments.
“Most likely, this man came to the attention of Russian special services because of his active contacts in Russia. However, it is unlikely to be of any interest. Russia needed someone at the level of Butina, and as a result, they noticed this poor man. I do not know the details of his development, but, in my opinion, in his level, he is of no interest either to Americans, as an agent, or to Russians, as a spy. I think it’s just a figure for exchange with the Americans,” he concludes.
This assumption seems especially likely against the background of recent events. As it turned out, Vladimir Zherebenkov became Paul Whelan’s lawyer. According to The Daily Beast, he’s a former Soviet government investigator who has never before tried an espionage case involving a foreign citizen. Russian independent prison monitors and human rights defenders believe that the lawyer was likely chosen by the same FSB that arrested Whelan in the first place. At the same time, Zherebenkov doesn’t hide his stated goal: to arrange a trade of Whelan for someone being held in the United States.
At the same time, Internet users in the United States noticed another red flag, namely, the nature of Paul Whelan’s links with Russia. As it turns out, the arrested American had an account on the Russian social network Vkontakte, allegedly under the control of the FSB. In his posts (if they really belonged to him), Whelan praised Donald Trump, as well as… the Russian army!
He published congratulations on Victory Day and Defender of the Fatherland Day in Russian, put the image of the Russian flag in his posts, and one of the Russian-language videos on his page is devoted to Defender of the Fatherland Day and is called “Army is a mirror of the state.” The video talks about Vladimir Putin reviving the Russian army. By the way, John Sipher suggests that open sympathy for Trump was one of the reasons that the choice of the Russian special services fell on Whelan.
Because of this, some users of social networks suggest that Paul Whelan could be a “Russian agent” who deliberately surrendered to the FSB & faked detention in order to secure Maria Butina’s return home. Other bloggers are more restrained, and only hint that lovers of Russia should not rely on special treatment, and it wouldn’t be the first time for the Kremlin to betray even the most loyal people.